The Barnum Effect: The Horoscope Is Always Right

The Barnum effect or Forer effect is the validation and acceptance of descriptions according to certain characteristics that are given as authentic. For these descriptions to be perceived as real, they must meet certain requirements; among them, that can be generalized to a large percentage of the population.

” A little something for everyone ” is usually in basic terms what makes certain assumptions real. A clear example in daily life about the Barnum effect can be found in the magazine sections on the horoscope. In them, allusion is made to personal characteristics based on a zodiac sign.

Characteristics about the Barnum effect

Even the most skeptical of horoscope readings and other methods that involve explanation and prediction can be impressed by the supposed accuracy of their readings. The way in which these descriptions about what will happen are written can be summarized in the following points:

• They are general assumptions that are easily extensible to a good part of the population that have little or nothing to do with the prediction criteria, such as the day of birth.
• They have a high rate of occurrence in the population according to certain personal characteristics, since there is no specificity in the descriptions.
• They are usually favorable descriptions, some of the negative descriptions being justified by negative experiences, (that is, ” you are A, but you have something in you that is B, that A does not let you see … ” etc.)

These characteristics can be seen in the following example. The text below will be the reading of a zodiac sign -we leave it to the reader’s imagination to choose one- :

Could you come to identify with this reading? Would it be your zodiac sign? And what if it wasn’t?

Barnum effect and other types of pseudosciences

Reading the horoscope is an activity that we can do on different web pages; Furthermore, many national magazines have a page written by their particular futurologist. Thus, there are many occasions when we can come across these types of predictions and even have the feeling, at times, that they are very accurate.

Furthermore, only the horoscope is the activity that remains under the yoke of the Barnum effect. There are other types of pseudosciences that, in the short term, seem to be effective by perceiving their effects as true when describing behaviors and making vague predictions (enneagrams, numerology, divination, readings, etc.).

Psychological and individual variables that influence the belief of the horoscope

Some studies have investigated the Barnum effect with the belief of the horoscope. The data collected in them suggest that the monthly and weekly forecast horoscopes enjoy less credibility than those that take as a reference to personality and circumstances.

Moreover, the profile of the usual reader of this type of prediction has been studied and the locus of control has been mentioned (Snyder and Larson, 1972): people with a high external locus of control are more likely to believe in the readings. of the zodiac. However, the analysis of the data leaves a wide margin of error for the conclusions, as some do not find results that confirm an external locus of control in those people who believe in astrological readings.

Personality variables and Barnum effect in the horoscope

The prediction and description of the personality characteristics of individuals are the readings that show the most credible results, as described in the previous point. In addition, if descriptions of a zodiac sign are given without the specific specification of the sign, this reading usually has less credibility (although the sign is later shown to them).

On the contrary, when the sign is known from the first moment, those characteristics that do not fit with the characteristics of the person are usually unconsciously ignored. In addition to holding on, they create the so-called illusory correlation. An example of it:

Who is most exposed? Men or women?

As a rule, horoscopes in physical paper format are usually in magazines that are directed to women. However, this does not mean that there is a greater predisposition on the feminine side. More and higher-quality research is needed to treat this conclusion – which alludes to gender differences – as robust.

On the other hand, it is likely that, depending on the person’s circumstances and the level of control they can exercise over them, the search for astral signs will be valued as a strategy to increase control over what will happen in the future.